Thoughts of an American Centrist

Thursday, April 28, 2005

More Proof of Global Warming

Brand new scientific research is now lending some additional strong evidence to the claim that human actions are directly causing global warming, (that's not to say that the uber-anti-environmental forces will acknowledge any validity for this very thorough and convincing study).

Hopefully, this will catch people's interest and hold it for more than a day. I'm fairly convinced that the only way we're going to get real governmental action on global warming in this administration is for massive popular support for such a measure. Unfortunately, those who have vested interests in keeping the sky as the limit for spewing major amounts of greenhouse gasses into the air (read: power plants, big oil, and other key GOP supporters) have gotten very good at sowing the seeds of doubt on this issue. Fortunately, more and more of us are starting to catch on.

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  • Finding a result that matches somewhat a computer model is not the same thing as proving causation. It simply isn't. Wishing it did wont make it so.

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  • Do you disbelieve the Theory of Relativity? Because, by that logic, it has not been "proven" either. For that matter, neither has atomic theory. All we have are experiments that lend support to models or predictions. At this point, are you willing to accept any scientific evidence as proof of causation?

    By Blogger Jonathan C, at 8:57 PM  

  • There is a reason they call it the "Theory" of Relativity. But to compare the various global warming theories to Relativity is highly specious. They are two entirely different orders of scientific activity. There are no competing theories out there that can account for the physical measurements that are known. That simply is not the case in climatology.

    According to the way I read my Karl Popper I'm NEVER allowed to assume correlation equals causation, even when I REALLY want it to be so.

    By Blogger The Iconic Midwesterner, at 2:06 PM  

  • What I meant to type was: "There are no competeing theories out there that can account for the physical measurements that are known THAT RELATIVITY ADDRESSES."

    By Blogger The Iconic Midwesterner, at 2:07 PM  

  • My appologies if it sounded like I was trying to equate the current global warming mechanism with the Theory of Relativity. My point was only that the word "Theory" in scientific language is not the same as the word Theory in an episode of Law and Order. A scientific "Theory" is a principle with significant supporting evidence that has become accepted by the community as a whole.

    It's one thing to keep an open mind and remain dubious, it's quite another to dismiss the most likely of two competing scenarios because there is no absolute proof. Is there ever a point where circumstantial or secondary evidence will be enough to prompt action? We use what you dismiss as correlation as supporting evidence for all types of scientific topics from astrophysics to clinial pharmacology. Granted, these types of experiments take a much greater volume of evidence to become accepted by the scientific community. I submit that global warming and sufficient indicators of human causation have been submitted, but those with vested interest in discrediting those experiments have successfully been able to convince people that there is signigicant doubt since there is no 100% certainty, and that is just manipulative.

    I fail to see how the most pure scientific mind - one deeply commited to examining competing theories based on the known facts - could feel that altering the composition of the atmosphere as a whole would not have some unintended consequences.

    By Blogger Jonathan C, at 4:13 PM  

  • Hey, if the processes that go into climate change were well known (or open to the kind of controlled studies open to pharmacology) I wouldn't have many issues. But climate change is NOT well uderstood. Scientists dont know why the world warmed up around 1000 A.D., nor why it cooled down in the 18th and early 19th centuries, or why it warmed up again in the late 19th century, etc. Without this baseline knowledge (I know it isn't exactly a real baseline, but it is relatively so) a lot of the climate work being done now are complete shots in the dark. The belief that human action is the primary cause of recent climate change is, at this point in time, as much a matter of faith as a devout Catholic's belief in transubstantiation is. That it has some effect is in a sense unarguable. But how much? is the question. Without the baseline knowledge (or something like it) you cannot answer the question of degree. (By definition it would be logically precluded.)

    That isn't a point that a truly scientific mind should be willing to toss aside lightly.

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